Yesterday the market is out of its torpor

With the fall of the volatility in recent months, daily variations in the foreign exchange market rarely exceeded 1. Yesterday, the market is out of its torpor. The single currency has crossed the threshold of 1.45 dollar, reverting with its levels in late September 2008. At the top of the day, the euro is negotiated against 1,4531 dollar, or 1.36 gain. The pound sterling was still better, climbing 1.57, 1,6588 dollar at the meeting.

The movement was centered around the green ticket. He gave up to 1.24 against six major world currencies, bringing the dollar index 11 months back to 77,04. "The rebound of liquidity on the market, after the summer lull and the long weekend in the United States, played an important role," says Carole Laulhère, Société Générale.

Access to weakness of the dollar has also coincided with a rising gold and oil. Barrel of crude oil enjoyed yesterday by more than 5, over 71 dollars (read page 20), while the yellow metal moved its fifth rise in a row, above the symbolic threshold of 1,000 dollars an ounce (read below).

Gold can be used to protect themselves when the dollar inspires more confidence in reason including fiscal and monetary policies conducted in the United States. "An ounce to $ 1,000 suggests that fears of renewed inflation and diversification outside the dollar are now likely to weigh on the US currency", recognizes Chris Turner, at ING. The strategist said that the Chinese sovereign fund would have been the buyer of gold that move the market last week. China is also the country that leads the fronde against the supremacy of the greenback.

Bond of trust

Although amplified by speculation and technical effects, these movements on the currency and raw material shows that the idea of a sustainable economic recovery more rallies in addition to votes. The American currency, which was sought when the spectre of recession haunting the market, has neglected since economic indicators improve and stock prices back. Since its March 5 at 89,10 peak, the dollar (against the six major currencies) index plunged more than 13. The euro regained almost 15.5 per cent and the pound almost 20. Its decline is even more impressive to the more pro-cyclical currencies, such as those of commodity-exporting countries. The Australian dollar resumed more than 36 since its low point in March. "The greenback is weakened to accumulate evidence of a recovery in activity in the world;" "nothing that in recent days, there was a sharp increase in the industrial in Germany commands and a bond of trust in business in Australia, its highest level for six years", note the ING team.

Yesterday, the United Kingdom economic indicators have justified particularly sustained appreciation of the pound sterling. Industrial production grew more than expected in July and August GDP was revised upward. "If the British currency benefited all movement on the Exchange yesterday, it is also because the market had a negative positioning in the last month."Since the decision of the Bank of England, beginning of August, to extend its measures not conventional, the pound sterling is indeed under pressure.

In a brighter economic context, the dollar may he suffer the Fed monetary policy to maintain interest rates at 0 and buy financial assets.