Aid to the sector for now rise to slightly more than 15 billion euros of which 11

The Spain wants to give a last blow of accelerator to the reform of its "cajas" or savings banks, strongly affected by the crisis real estate and currently engaged in fusion processes which have reduced their number of two-thirds, to 17 entities.

"We will put a final point to the savings and loan restructuring, strengthen their capital structure and to adopt all necessary measures," said with force the head of Government, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, last week.

Since then, speculation abounded in the Spanish press, for which the Government would prepare a new recapitalisation of caisses. The daily "el Confidential" online advance a range of 30 to 80 billion euros, an estimate shared by Barclays Capital analysts. Aid to the sector for now rise to slightly more than 15 billion euros, of which 11.5 billion of public loans granted by the Fund for bank restructuring at the prohibitive rate of 7.75.

"We are absolutely confident that the restructuring of the Spanish financial system may be made in strengthening the system perhaps with very limited public assistance and private capital", has tempered José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, in an interview with the "Financial Times" Saturday.

More exposed than banks

In other words, the Government still favors his first scenario to restructured funds, according to the reform of last July, access to markets, both to recapitalise by issuing debt. A real need at the time where they will face important refinancing of debt and duty to prepare for the requirements of Basel III.

But an ingredient essential to the realization of this scenario would be to miss, namely the confidence of investors. By their history and their regional presence, the caisses are more exposed than banks in the sector of construction and real estate. The publication late January the details of this exhibition, required by the Bank of Spain to improve transparency, fears of bad surprises. This is why the Government would consider new public aid and push the 'bancarization' of funds.

Their mutation in banks may be "the way more effective, since international investors know perfectly what is a Bank and are more difficult to understand what is a savings," recognizes Joaquín Maudos, Professor at the University of Valencia. But the reform of July their offer other options such as the SIP or cold fusion, which is for caisses merging, to pool in less than 40 of their income and capital in a bank they are the owners; a path chosen by five of the thirteen mergers. Under pressure from the Bank of Spain, these SIP become de facto mergers, all opted for sharing 100.

The result of the reform of savings banks is seen as the key to permanently close the door to a potential rescue of the Spain. "The first task in this crusade for credibility is to complete the bank restructuring." "If the situation of the sector does not clarify and if it does not demonstrate its viability, there will be no confidence in the Spain, or access to finance, nor economic recovery", considers Santiago Carbo Valverde, Professor at the University of Granada, in a forum was published in "El Pais".