The rescue plan may limit these movements

The stock markets are distributed in the red, after the rebound caused late last week by the announcement of a plan to rescue the American financial system emanating from the Federal Reserve and Treasury. Investors preferred to take their profits, while all the details of the plan is not yet known. The surge in oil prices has also created a less supportive. In this environment, the greenback has suffered. The dollar is passed over the threshold of 1.48 for 1 euro.

According to several strategists, the $ 700 billion to clear the balance sheet of banks of "toxic" assets in the United States announced a widening of the deficit of approximately 1,000 billion and an increase in U.S. debt as a result. This perspective which can, in the worst case, lead to a deterioration in the credit note of the United States by rating agencies is detrimental to the dollar. And, as expectations of lower rates on the part of the Federal Reserve are blunted since that plan was unveiled. Yesterday, the market gave a 34 probability a gesture of monetary easing at the October meeting. Last week, a number of operators expected further intervention on interest rates before the next monetary policy Committee.

Passivity outside United States

"If the Government buys all these toxic assets, the Fed has more need for lower rates, find René Defossez in Natixis. Monetary easing was not a response to the crisis: this is not so much the cost of funding for banks which poses problem as finding funding.

Another phenomenon weakening greenback: the reduction of the risk aversion. The fears related to the financial turbulence have offered support to the dollar in recent weeks. Despite the signals concern weighing on the banks and the U.S. economy, the currency held good through massive capital, especially from emerging fellowships remittances. The rescue plan may limit these movements.

Strategists believe that the market will now gradually refocused his attention on economic fundamentals. "I think the dollar will regain forces, on a background of deterioration of the short-term prospects in the world," says Stephen Jen at Morgan Stanley. "The United States have demonstrated their activism and determination to ensure that the recession is not too large and does not last long, while the leaders of other countries have been much more passive", continues the strategist.

The dollar slide step

The degradation of the market of American employment, with unemployment which is prepared to 6.1, but leaves some currency traders skeptical a pursuit of the appreciation of the greenback in the coming months. Real estate and consumption indicators will be followed with great attention.

For external funding of the rescue plan, Stephen Jen believes he will not truly be problem in the United States, insofar as the trade deficit is reduced as the budget deficit is widening. "The dollar should suffer if Treasury must register all its acquisitions losses, but with sufficiently high on State bond yields, there is no reason to be negative for the greenback this operation." For this specialist of Morgan Stanley, there is no risk to see the dollar skidding to 1.60 against 1 euro, as in July.