The first public expenditure is out of service

Is the worst of the Greek crisis over Financially, it is likely. Economically, it can seriously in doubt. This is, in essence, the analysis book Moritz Kraemer, responsible for Europe of the marking of the country in Standard & Poor's (S & P) for Europe. The latter does not hide that it considers the reaction of markets, in recent months, as excessive. Equally surprising, moreover, was their stiff upper lips when, in 2004 and 2005, the Agency S & P began to revise downward the notes to several countries (the Italy first, then the Greece and the Portugal). The time was euphoria, and the discordant voice of diagnosis of S & P, who was concerned to see how casually the stability and Growth Pact was flouted, was barely audible. Conversely, the panic that surrounded the Greek case is perhaps disproportionately, even if the economic picture is bleak. One can think that the pressure decrease on Athens once passed the emission test new obligations of State, that seems imminent.

Unlikely recovery

In economic matters, however, the table is darker. "The likelihood of a recovery in the short-term is very low," slice Moritz Kraemer. Because the three main engines firing so far the Greek economy are badly. The first, public expenditure, is out of service. The second, the household consumption, is much more bright. The boom of the credit which nourished it is well and truly finished, and household finances are in the phase of degradation. The third, investment, "a good part was the corollary of the expansion of the credit." He also "result likely to disappoint". Could export machine take over No need to dream: exports only draw ever the Greek economy, when well even the country would be lost competitiveness. In fact, they weigh "that 20 to 25 of GDP, against an average of 36 in the euro area... or 80 in Ireland".

"Good alignment of the stars".

In this context, the bitter potion of austerity in which the country is forced may seem dangerous for the economy. It is not less "inevitable", j. Moritz Kraemer. The countries do not have the reputation of an Orthodox management of its finances, it has no other choice. The good news, tempering, is "the good alignment of the stars". Namely: "a Government with a clear majority, making part of the terrible reputation of its predecessors, and having a vision very specific that should be." Particular need reform emergency pensions "the less viable throughout the European Union".

In this context, the partition that play Europeans leaves Moritz Kraemer skeptical. A European Monetary Fund What good, "if it is a new European institution subject, like the others, to the interference of the Member States". Set up a European plan of the Greece rescue him seems not only not really feasible: how to be certain that the associated conditionalities would be respected "So far the euro area did not evidence of its ability to compel its members to comply with rules." Not to mention, if that fails, "the risk of contagion would high." The international monetary fund, knows how to make...