It is from spending that the shoe pinches

The commitment was too ambitious. In the fall, the Government had promised to reduce a quarter of the deficit of the general scheme of social security, to EUR 8.9 billion end of 2006. According to the Commission's forecasts of the accounts of social security that meets today, the balance would be in fact EUR 10.3 billion. This would all similarly reduce the deficit of 1.3 billion from 2005 (see table), but the reduction objective would be achieved only in half. And yet, this time, revenues are the appointment. They proved to be even higher than forecast by the good surprise of the "old" PEL: the anticipation of the social security payments (CSG, DRES) on housing more 10 years savings plans reported 800 million euros from more than anticipated.

It is from spending that the shoe pinches. Those insurance go wrong in a limited way (EUR 600 million), which has recently led alert Committee to launch a last warning without however imposing remedies. The Government, and the CNAM can also meet a planned branch deficit at EUR 6.3 billion, almost half less than in 2004. While beat down Medicare punctuate it only social security in recent years, it is more "than" 60 of the deficit.

The situation of the old-age insurance is more disturbing. Departures anticipated long career success is not, belies what makes diving accounts ("Les Echos" of June 6). Despite rising 0.2 point of contributions occurred on 1 January, the CNAV would thus show a deficit of EUR 2.2 billion at year end, a digging that the Government was not expected before 2009. While the first generation (1946) baby boomers reached the age of 60 years, announced long failover becomes reality.

An essential issue

Reform Fillon had little effect in the short term, the Government is found without waiting for the appointment of 2008. It has on the other hand means of action to put an end to the drift of branch family (1.5 billion deficit), supposed to yet tender to balance since social revenue is progressing faster than family benefits. It passes through the implementation of the recommendations of the SIGA-IGF report to contain the skid of subsidies to day-care centres ("Les Echos" from June 2).

For Medicare, the Government will today announce new economic measures. However, it will assert its vigilance on the escalation of the expenses of the clinics, which will make the object, as a first step, controls. In the end, the inability of the Government to significantly reduce the social security deficit will make this essential issue for the next President of the Republic. After "the highest ever achieved in 2004 and 2005", the planned improvements for 2006 "is still limited and fragile", says François Monier, General Secretary of the Board of Auditors. Arrested in the fall of multi-year forecasting was a negative balance of 6.5 billion euros in 2007, a target that appears today hardly attainable. And from next year, the reports of debts on the amortization of the social debt (Cades) Fund is more possible without raising the rate of the DRES.