Much clue that could halt the improvement

All economists agree to at least provide a mitigation of the crisis in the second half and a modest recovery in 2010. Provided that neither too much unemployment and deflation or even a new financial Jolt speakers.

l the Europe feel a relative improvement in its situation. The trust of the entrepreneurs in the euro area, published yesterday, straightened in July for the fourth month in a row, to 76 points against 73.2 in June. In March, the lowest index was 64.6. After a decline of 2.5 in the first quarter, the economy of the area is expected to contract in the second quarter, but to a lesser extent, provide analysts, before stabilizing in the third quarter. Businesses see their order books to improve, mainly through support to the automobile, and the levels of stocks to standardize.

But this improvement does not also all economies. If the Spain, the Italy and the Germany recorded a net progression of the confidence of entrepreneurs, this feeling is much lower in France and the Netherlands.

In addition, consumers who fear new waves of redundancies to the re-entry, are very cautious. Retail sales index a good logical fell for the 14th month in a row, 47.3 against 47.5 in June. More worrying signs of deflation multiply dans the euro area. Much clue that could halt the improvement. Moreover, the IMF yesterday provided a "modest recovery" for Europe, without excluding risks of relapse or deflation for the 16 euro area countries.

l in Asia, under the influence of the Chinese locomotive, whose growth is still expected 7.5 this year, the activity to wake up. The Japan has recorded an increase in its industrial production of 2.4 in June. It is the fourth straight month of recovery, drawn by automotive and electronics. Most economists believe that the Japanese economy contracts since the second quarter of 2008, should get out of the recession in the second quarter of 2009, the stimulus plans launched the Japan and abroad as well as to the recovery of international trade. The Korea of the South, it recorded a growth of 2.3 of GDP in the second quarter, after 0.1 in the first quarter. According to the Korean Central Bank, exports have rebounded 14.7 between April and June, taking advantage of the recovery in China. And consumer spending rose by 3.3 per cent under the influence of the automobile and other durable goods. But the job market is still contracted, says the Bank.

The India, on the other hand, saves signs of recovery but, earlier in the week, the Central Bank lowered its growth forecast of 7 to 6 for the fiscal year ending in March 2010, while the IMF relies on no more than 3 to 4.

l l in Latin America, the evolution of the GDP of main countries in the second quarter of the year, published soon, will be probably negative in most cases, but in a relatively small proportion. Reduction of tax revenue, particularly in the Brazil and Argentina, or recent data available, as the fall of the argentine industrial production, by 2.7 in June over the same period of last year, indicate that the activity is still bleak. But economists are reminiscent of the argentine industrial production had fallen by nothing less than 10.7 for the first five months of the year over the same period of 2008. The worst is probably wrong, considers the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (Eclac) of the United Nations. The latter focused on commercial and financial indicators which provide generally for the end of the recession and believes that now the Argentina, the Brazil, the Chile, the Colombia and the Peru are located in the "same level as that found in the past on the eve of an economic recovery." The Eclac therefore expects a return to growth in the second half of this year, which would limit the fall of the average GDP of the countries of the zone to 1.9 in 2009.

l in the countries of the Gulf, the resumption of the oil prices, at $ 75 in the spring before falling to 64 dollars, reassembled has helped the economies to limit the damage after a scary winter. Of course, pharaonic sites are still the case, especially in Dubai, that dismissed Western expatriates leave en masse, leaving behind thousands of cars to the unpaid bills. But the oil exporting Arab monarchies are part of the rare countries assured economic growth this year. According to a recent report by the international monetary fund, the GDP of the countries of the zone should advance by 3.1 in total throughout the year, three points less than in 2008. Budgetary margin of manoeuvre featuring with the high price of oil in recent years, and Governments have indeed homework on stabilization and recovery plans. Saudi Arabia thus increased its spending by 16 this year, equivalent to one-third of its GDP plan. The confidence index of local investors for the third quarter significantly improved recently. And the forecast of growth of world demand for oil for 2010 confirm optimistic in their forecasts for the area.