And before the European Central Bank tightened its monetary policy

It is a real race against the clock that have committed since a fortnight the leaders of Dexia and the French, Belgian and Luxembourg, authorities in an attempt to complete negotiations with the European Commission on the restructuring of the Bank plan before the departure of Neelie Kroes. The clock is ticking: the European competition Commissioner completes its mandate at the end of the week, before leaving Joaquin Almunia, the current economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, his successor on February 9.

Therefore, Dexia and its public shareholders wish to reach an agreement as soon as the first days of this week. Two working sessions, which the second was held Friday, failed to overcome past differences. "Discussions are continuing," it indicates in Dexia refused any comment.

This is close to a year that Dexia is negotiating with the cabinet of Neelie Kroes the terms of a restructuring plan that the Commission wishes to even more drastic than the Bank was massively helped by States French, Belgian and Luxembourg to overcome the crisis: in addition to a public of EUR 6.4 billion recapitalisation, it received a guarantee of the rule that can go up to 150 billion. "It would cost to see the folder returned by other interlocutors, says an observer." There would obviously be a continuity of service, but it should be that the new Commissioner and his Office familiarized with the folder, not to mention the new tropisms and each other. "In short, new delays in perspective, for an even more uncertain outcome.

Agreement at hand

Rather than risk the discomfort of such extensions, Dexia and its public shareholders would prefer an agreement now appears within reach. As would allow it a priori save the essential: the Bank would escape the dismantling of its Belgian and French. "Everything has been made for this", indicates a connoisseur of the folder. For the rest, the cursor can still move. Dexia, which has already been the household in its bond portfolio, arrested its market activities riskiest, assigned the FSA, its shareholdings in KommunalKredit Austria American monoline credit North and Dexia saving private - or more than 30 of its balance sheet - will probably still be a not to convince the Commission.

Side public shareholders of Dexia, it still hoped these days limit case challenging the calculation methods used by Brussels to estimate the amount of aid received. Side Commission, while recalling that the Group has tripled in size in five years, is building on certain assets it could still sell, especially in the United States, the Japan or Eastern Europe - still mainly the Slovak subsidiary. Without excluding so other scenarios of assignment: the Italian subsidiary Crediop, insurance, and asset management activities. "The objective is not to arrive at a bank that would have reduced its size but would have eliminated all of its sources of income", says still in Brussels. Indeed, the maintenance in the Group of the Turkish subsidiary Denizbank, third source of deposits of the group after the Belgium and the Luxembourg, seems guaranteed.

Because that is what the Commission wants to ensure: the viability of the Bank in the long term. Brussels continues to doubt the sustainability of a "business model" of finance in the short term on the wholesale market to grant long-term borrowing, i.e. to local communities. The challenge, for Dexia, is to demonstrate that it can extend its refinancing to avoid any risk of liquidity by the end of the State guarantee enjoyed by it until October 2010. And before the European Central Bank tightened its monetary policy. Something experienced while Joaquin Almunia, on which it is clear to get an idea if he were to look.