A Great cliff brutally succeeded the beach

A dizzying fall, breathtaking. In the global economy, 2009 was first a phenomenal collapse. The confidence of the stock exchange, Exchange, production. In six months, the value of world exports of goods fell by 38. According to experts, the slump was more brutal than in the 1930s. The CAC 40 of large French companies index lost 23 between January 1 and March 9, still more steeply than end of 2008. The scale of the planet, the heritage of individuals was unscrewed more 10,000 billion! French industrial production, it has lost 20 in one year. Here also, the correction has been even more severe than in the 1930s.

The year 2009, it is the high cliffs of Etretat. While the depression of the early 2000s resembled le Touquet Beach - a very slow descent where the French economy remained on a patch of sand while that of the United States or the Germany was spent under the water. And the recession from the oil shock, in 1975, was rather of the waterfront to Granville - a slope steep but not very high.

Everyone fell from the high cliff, or not in the same way. First there were those who have switched a coup - countries, companies or individuals. Their activity is closely dependent on finance and therefore credit: real estate and automotive in the foreground, and the actors of the global trade in the second plan, airlines to shipowners through the entire logistics chain. There was then all those who were afraid. Without necessarily losing their jobs or their markets, they brutally restricted their purchases to the subsistence minimum.

In business, the CEO, evolved into the former Financial Director, cut all expenses which are not essential in the short term, such as investment or advertising. In homes, has postponed the purchase of a new car and cut the far-flung holiday budget. It is probably this reflex, playing for the first time in the world, with a single stroke, which caused the formation of a slope to both also stiff and also high. The "great cliff" is the first crisis of the world village.

But this collapse triggered two movements in contrary sense, as if a thrust of Archimedes could also exist in economics. The first was political, almost instinctive: need to avert the catastrophe of the 1930s, where passivity and absurd decisions have transformed a financial crash in global depression. The reaction began back in late 2008 with the sharp lowering of interest rates, the Summit of Washington and the first stimulus plans, Chinese or French. It continued and thorough in 2009 with Obama, the purchase of bonds by the Federal Reserve, the advances of the London Summit to coordinate the response of the major countries and avoid the rise of protectionism.

The second movement was technical, almost physical. After the reflex of blocking, it took well to buy again. Change the failed computers in the Office, take advantage of the premium case to change the old R19, return of the metal beams to the warehouse for the current site...

These two movements caused a rupture in the break-up. The activity is distributed. Industrialists have found morale. A "Great cliff" brutally succeeded the beach. Nothing but very normal on the bottom. But there is a worrying sign: economists immediately called it "great stabilization." This is undoubtedly the index landforms are far from having disappeared!

The question now is whether if the range consists of hard sand, which can move forward and begin to rebuild, or dangerous quicksands. Printing changes every day, according to the published indicators. And doubt comes from the colossal means implemented to stop the fall - average budget (5,000 billion globally in the stimulus and bank guarantees) and monetary means (rate of interest practically null and exceptional interventions). Without them, what happens

The "great cliff" is formed from a too high accumulation of debts in developed countries, financed from a colossal reserves Exchange accumulated by emerging countries, China in mind. To stop the dizzying fall, these countries constituted a formidable mountain of public debt. In Europe, this debt (measured by the level reported to the GDP) will be increased by half in four years! Last year, the Icelandic State with its 300,000 inhabitants had failed. In the end 2009, is the Greek State and its 11 million people which has been near bankruptcy. In 2010, still larger nations might have difficulties. At the same time where it will yet become clear that only the public expenditure may preserve the activity in a world where individuals as companies want to alleviate their debts! Welcome to the year of the sands.