Yesterday he slightly exceeded this level

Some of the support of the American bond market disappeared this week. Thursday ends the program of purchases of loans of State by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Announced on 18 March, this device will led the Fed to purchase 300 billion of securities on the market. Course operators have had time to prepare for the suspension of these measures, but the timing falls poorly, since a record amount of debt will be issued this week. In total, 123 billion of bonds will be awarded: yesterday evening, the issuance of 7 billion of securities indexed to the inflation to 5 years opened the ball successfully. Today, the market will have to absorb 44 billion 2-year bonds Wednesday 41 billion securities in 5 years and Thursday 31 billion of loans to seven years. "These days here to announce uncomfortable for us state bonds, including those of short maturity; "especially if one adds higher market shares and the economic news improves slightly", believes the team of Calyon. Yesterday, despite the decline in Wall Street, the performance of the obligation to 10 years tended by 3 basis points, to 3,5296 at the end of European session. The rate is passed above the bar of 3.5 for the first time in more than two months.

"An era soon."

The publication, Thursday, third-quarter GDP in the United States, which should mark the release of recession, one of the major risk factors for the week. If the figure is above the expectations of economistswhich build on an increase of 3.2-, the bond market will be penalized. The many short-term indicators émaillent upcoming sessions will be as many potential pitfalls.

"The feeling that the time of good financing market is soon gone weighs on the bond, also explain the strategists of Calyon." The main source of weakness for bonds is the fear of Central Bank restrict his supply of liquidity. "The question of the timing of"exit strategies"crisis, materialized by a decision of policy for the granting of liquidity and a rebound in interest rates, becomes crucial.

Last week, the words of Charles Plosser, Member of the Fed, which has indicated that he would plead for a monetary tightening "before most of his colleagues", were made by the turmoil. The borrowing of State 2-year performance is stretched more than 6 points, 1 Friday. Yesterday, he slightly exceeded this level. On futures, the market began to anticipate a turn of screw in the United States in the second quarter of 2010, rather than in the second part of the year.

The European market not saved

The European market is not spared. "Noise on exit strategies, especially on the part of representatives of the ECB, moves the expectations of the market rates and justifies movement seller on short-term European obligations" analysis Laurent Fransolet, at Barclays Capital. On the other hand, the euro area does undergoes step currently pressure linked to an influx of titles. This week, emissions (approximately 16 billion EUR) are amply offset by debt repayments and payments of coupons. BNP Paribas, the situation is also supported in November.