The US economy created the month last 113

The reserve Federal procéderat - it tomorrow night in a new round of screws then that US economic growth has already begun to decelerate The issue taps stakeholders for several weeks, each statistic is the opportunity to revise upward or downward expectations. The first estimate of GDP for the second quarter, unveiled late July, sowed doubt in the minds. The camp of the proponents of the status quo was reinforced.

Remains that inflationary pressures still appear to concern the central bankers. Last Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of the Denmark and the Bank of England unexpectedly all have raised their interest rates. Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the ECB found that the inflation risk has increased.

Friday, the report on us employment for the month of July brought an additional argument for the hypothesis of the status quo. The US economy created the month last 113.000 jobs, i.e. 31,000 units less than hoped. "In view of these new figures, there is little doubt that the Fed will pause at its August meeting and leave rates unchanged at 5.25 ", commented on weekend Rob Carnell, at ING. "A rise in September remains a possibility if inflation data continue to grow." But it is not the rate go much above.

Relaxing on the bond

The market obviously is the same reading. The report on the employment resulted in an erosion of the expectations of higher rates. On the futures market contract federal funds rate deadline August decreased by 4 basis points to 5.28. The probability for stakeholders see the Fed raise interest rates by 25 basis points, to 5.50, tomorrow is now less than 20.

On the bond market, the performance of the loans of State it is therefore logically relaxed. The U.S. 2-year rate has thus declined 8 points to 4,899, and the 10-year rate dropped 6 points, at 4,893. European titles have benefited from this trend, the image of the French OAT whose rate is relaxed by 7 points to 3,916.

On the front of the currency, the euro, which had failed the last few days to cross a point of resistance to 1,2835 dollar, regained impetus. After a brief incursion above 1.29 dollar (1,2909), it has exchanged 1,2894 dollar on the eve of the weekend. It was 1,2748 dollar a week earlier. The greenback also gave 0.8 against the yen Friday, to 114,18 yen against 114,76 a week earlier.

For David Sloan, at 4Cast, "the closely report on employment means a moderation of growth towards a more sustainable pace more than a weakening." "It now remains to be seen whether the optimism of the Fed on the fact that growth may contain inflation will be maintained." For him, the release of the institution, tomorrow soir, should probably be turned so as to not exclude a new increase in interest rates.

There is no doubt that the speakers will be on the lookout for any signal to take the measurement between a sustainable break and a mere passage of Tower. The first hypothesis is the most against the dollar so that the ECB, as the Bank of Japan, continue to raise the tone.